Performance of Silver Mutual Funds is Slowing Down. Here's Why
Rounaq Neroy
May 19, 2023 / Reading Time: Approx. 8 mins
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For portfolio diversification, Silver Mutual Funds and Gold Mutual Funds are meaningful avenues to invest in precious commodities, viz. silver and gold, the smart way. The first Gold Exchange Traded Fund or Gold ETF was launched in 2007 (the Gold BeEs), while the Silver Exchange Traded Funds or Silver ETFs only last year in January 2022 (the ICICI Prudential Silver ETF).
Silver ETFs are open-ended mutual fund schemes that are mandated (as per SEBI's operating norms) to invest at least 95% of its assets in silver and silver-related instruments. And per the SEBI rules, they are required to hold silver having 99.9% purity. Silver ETFs generate returns that are almost in line with the performance of physical silver in domestic prices, subject to a tracking error. The domestic price of silver is derived from the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) AM fixing prices.
On the other hand, the Silver ETF Fund of Funds (FoFs) invest in the Silver ETF. The investment objective of a Silver ETF FoF is to seek capital appreciation by investing in units of the respective Silver ETF. The scheme may buy/sell Silver ETF units either directly with the fund or through the secondary market on the stock exchange(s). Thus, the Silver ETF FOFs track and replicates the performance of the underlying ETF.
It is important to note that silver besides being a precious metal, is largely an industrial commodity. It finds application in electronic goods, solar panels, switches, electric vehicles, medical instruments, satellites, 5G technology, Internet of Things (IoTs), plus many other technical facets. Hence, the fortune of silver as an asset class is closely linked to the outlook for the industrial world and the overall economy. In other words, silver is a pro-cyclical precious commodity (unlike gold, which usually is counter-cyclical and performs better in times of economic uncertainty). Therefore, silver, a precious commodity, may be more volatile than gold. The returns of silver ETF returns could be lumpy - with sharp up and downward movement. Having said that, the history of silver prices has illustrated that this precious metal could be a hedge against rising inflation.
In this piece, let us particularly look at how Silver Mutual Funds -- both Silver ETFs and Silver ETF FoFs -- have fared since their launch and why of late their returns have slowed down.
Table: Performance of Silver ETF and Silver ETF FoFs since their launch
Data as of 18 May 2023
The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.
Direct Plan-Growth option considered.
Returns considered are point-to-point and expressed in %.
Returns over 1 year are compounded annualised; else absolute.
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
The table above is NOT a recommendation as such. Speak to your investment advisor for further assistance before investing.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme-related documents carefully.
(Source: ACE MF; Data collated by PersonalFN Research)
Many Silver ETFs and Silver ETF FoFs since their respective launch last year have generated respectable compounded annualised returns. Aditya Birla SL Silver ETF topped on the returns front in the last 1 year, followed by ICICI Prudential Silver ETF and Nippon India Silver ETF.
In the last 3 months and 6 months specifically, the returns accelerated--thanks to upbeat industrial demand from sunrise sectors in developing economies, better economic prospects for developing economies due to favourable reform policies, and high inflation. In general, silver as an asset class reported +12% absolute returns in the last 6 months in U.S. dollar terms (as of 18 May 2023).
Graph: 1-yr historical price movement of silver
Data of 18 May 2023
The price of silver is expressed in USD per ounce. As of the above date, silver was USD 23.50 per ounce.
(Source: macrotrends.net)
However, over the last 1 month, the price of silver in USD terms has dropped sharply by -6.8% (and -4.1% in INR terms). This has also weighed down on the returns clocked by Silver ETFs and Silver ETF FoFs in the last 1 month (as seen in the Table above). On average, Silver ETFs and Silver ETF FoFs have posted -4.7% and -4.0% absolute returns, respectively, in the last 1 month.
(Image source: freepik.com; image by wirestock on Freepik)
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Some of the reasons for the drop in silver prices over the last 1 month are...
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✓ The concern about the increasing debt ceiling of the U.S.
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✓ Elevated interest rates
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✓ The IMF has warned that the banks in the U.S. are vulnerable to interest rate risk.
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✓ Fears of a recession gripping the U.S. and the potential ripples of it on the global economy.
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✓ Questions raised about Chinese economic recovery.
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✓ The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and escalating geopolitical tensions in many parts of the world.
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✓ The effects of the above on industrial growth going forward, economic growth, and demand for silver.
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✓ And profit booking in silver (after having made respectable returns)
Who should consider investing in Silver Mutual Funds?
Silver ETFs may be suitable for portfolio diversification only for experienced investors with a reasonably high-risk appetite who understand the precious metals or commodity cycles.
Moreover, short-term price fluctuations of silver ideally should not influence your investment decisions. Silver is expected to play an important role in industrial growth-- be it electronic components, switches, electric vehicles, battery management systems, MEM sensors, semiconductor ICs/chips, cabling, power distribution, 5G technology, satellite, and IoTs, among a host of other applications. Silver is also a critical component of the green revolution and digitisation. It is vital to keep an eye on industrial growth, the path to economic progress, and keep a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver as an asset class for potential gains.
From an allocation perspective, it would be wise to keep the exposure to Silver Mutual Funds of not more than 5%-10% of the entire investment portfolio.
Happy Investing!
ROUNAQ NEROY heads the content activity at PersonalFN and is the Chief Editor of PersonalFN’s newsletter, The Daily Wealth Letter.
As the co-editor of premium services, viz. Investment Ideas Note, the Multi-Asset Corner Report, and the Retire Rich Report; Rounaq brings forth potentially the best investment ideas and opportunities to help investors plan for a happy and blissful financial future.
He has also authored and been the voice of PersonalFN’s e-learning course -- which aims at helping investors become their own financial planners. Besides, he actively contributes to a variety of issues of Money Simplified, PersonalFN’s e-guides in the endeavour and passion to educate investors.
He is a post-graduate in commerce (M. Com), with an MBA in Finance, and a gold medallist in Certificate Programme in Capital Market (from BSE Training Institute in association with JBIMS). Rounaq holds over 18+ years of experience in the financial services industry.
Disclaimer: Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and is not meant to influence your investment decisions. It should not be treated as a mutual fund recommendation or advice to make an investment decision.